And so it begins…the one month of the year where a single college basketball tournament costs employers a collective $1.2 Billion for every hour of lost productivity. And it’s fantastic!
At blooom, we’re big believers that we can find investing lessons in nearly every aspect of our lives, which brings me to my point in writing this. Regardless of what your tournament bracket looks like right now, as the surviving teams march on toward the Final Four, there are several lessons on investing that we can take away from all the madness.
1. Analysts are as Clueless as Everyone Else
No one can possibly have enough time to watch every regular season college basketball game. Unless they get paid to. Expert forecasts are a trusted source for anyone filling out a bracket. But if the pros are always getting it wrong, how can the casual fan have any hope? That’s the point.
The financial media has made millions on the ancient art of fortune telling. No matter how many times they get it wrong, market analysts have made careers out of making random predictions that are usually very wrong. It seems like it takes just one correct guess to achieve the prestigious “guru” title on CNBC. A great example of this is the rise of Marc Faber, aka “Dr. Doom”. He’s a regular on CNBC that is best known for his ability to accurately forecast major market downturns. However, the funny thing is that he has been wrong far more often than he’s been right. If you repeat the same gloomy predictions over and over again, of course you’re going to get it right and cash in big at some point. Does that make him a prophet? No. It makes him a great salesman.